EdgeLord treats every player as a probability distribution, strips the book's vig, layers in venue, rest, pitcher matchups and weather — and only surfaces picks where the math says you're actually getting paid.
Four data layers, seven context adjustments, and a probability model that strips the book's juice. Picks only make the board if all three gates clear: +EV, edge, and confidence.
Player props from 15+ sportsbooks pulled 4× daily across five core markets per sport. Every line is timestamped so we can detect sharp money moves since the open.
Recency-weighted form, Bayesian-shrunk head-to-head history, fresh 30-day defensive matchup, and a starter-filtered league baseline. Blended into a projection and a volatility band.
Home/away, back-to-backs, line movement, MLB park factors, probable pitcher handedness matchups, and live wind + temp from the stadium — all stacked on the raw projection.
Using the normal CDF, we compute the true probability the over/under hits, then normalize the book's odds to no-vig. EV = our probability − their no-vig price. No vibes.
Consistency, line proximity in standard deviations, H2H sample depth, and recency coverage. Boom/bust players get penalized. Metronomes get rewarded.
21 picks per day max, diversified across sports, games, and players. Every pick finalizes at first pitch / tipoff, so what you see is what gets graded.
A 52% probability play at −110 is +EV. The same play at −130 isn't. v5 knows the difference. Most "edge calculators" don't.
Every MLB batter pick is adjusted for the probable pitcher, handedness splits, and the batter's prior history against that specific pitcher when the sample exists.
Outdoor MLB games pull live wind direction, speed, and temperature from the stadium. A 12 mph gust blowing out to center boosts HR probability. Cold air suppresses carry.
Home/away splits, back-to-back fatigue, and MLB park factors (Coors boosts, Petco suppresses) all feed the projection before it ever meets the line.
We track the opening line on every pick. When the line moves against our side, we flag it. When it softens in our favor, that's confirmation the market agrees.
Small head-to-head samples lie. We pull short H2H data toward the league mean using phantom games, so a 2-game outlier doesn't get treated like gospel.
Free forever teaser. Full access for less than a single bad parlay.
$0
$9.99/mo
or $99.99/yr (save 17%)