Two pricing engines, one Edge score. EdgeLine AI models every player AND every game outcome as a probability distribution — props, spreads, totals, moneylines, parlays. We layer in dozens of real-world variables, strip out the vig, and surface picks where the math says you're actually getting paid.
Edge = our probability minus the book's no-vig probability, measured in percentage points. Same formula on every pick. No projection ratios, no inflated long-odds EV. One honest metric you can compare across markets — and grade us on.
Hits
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Our
77%
Book
53%
EV / $1
+37.0%
Strikeouts
Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Our
66%
Book
49%
EV / $1
+26.1%
Run Line
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Our
44%
Book
38%
EV / $1
+16.9%
2 player props + 2 game outcomes — the 4 highest-conviction picks our AI surfaces from a board of 10+ daily picks and 3 correlation-aware parlays. for the full board, parlays, the Bomb Tank, and AI chat.
Two specialized engines — one for player props, one for game outcomes — both feeding into the same edge gates: +EV, edge magnitude, and confidence. Every pick on the board cleared all three. The rest of the slate gets cut.
Player props plus game lines — spreads, totals, moneylines — pulled from 8 major sportsbooks across all four sports. Every line is timestamped so we can detect sharp money moves since the open.
The prop engine models each player as a probability distribution — recency-weighted form, Bayesian H2H, defensive matchup, league baseline. The game engine runs sport-specific math (MLB pitcher quality, NBA pace × efficiency, NHL goalie SV%) to project full-game scoring distributions. Same edge-detection philosophy, two surfaces.
Home/away splits, fatigue, line movement, injury news, garbage-time filtering, plus sport-specific layers — park factors, weather, B2B rest, goalie matchups, starter ERA — all stacked on every projection.
We strip the book's vig out of the posted odds, then compute Edge = (our probability − no-vig implied probability) × 100. Same formula on props, spreads, totals, moneylines, and parlays. One number you can compare across every market in the app. 5–10pp is solid, 10–20pp is strong, 20pp+ is elite.
Consistency, line proximity in standard deviations, sample depth (H2H for props, recent form for game models), and market coverage. Boom/bust signals get penalized. Self-tuning — the AI re-weights itself as the W/L record grows.
4 heaters (2 prop + 2 game), 10 main-board picks (5 prop + 5 game), 3 daily correlation-aware parlays, and the Bomb Tank for HR longshots — diversified across sports, games, and players. Every pick finalizes at first pitch / tipoff.
Most picks services slap a different “edge” on every product — a projection ratio on props, a model delta on spreads, an inflated long-odds EV on parlays. Apples to oranges. EdgeLine uses the same formula on everything: (our probability − no-vig implied) × 100, in percentage points. A 5pp edge is a 5pp edge whether it's a hits prop, a moneyline, or a super-4 parlay. Same definition, same scale, same calibration discipline — so when our W/L history grows, you can actually verify the math holds.
A 52% probability play at −110 is +EV. The same play at −130 isn't. Our AI knows the difference. Most "edge calculators" don't.
Pitcher quality + bullpen factors in baseball totals, pace × efficiency in NBA spreads, goalie SV% in NHL goal totals, home-field edge tuned per sport. Each sport gets its own context stack on both prop and game models.
We track the opening line on every pick. When it softens in our direction, sharp money is confirming the read. When it moves against us, confidence drops automatically.
Small head-to-head samples lie. Short matchup histories get pulled toward the league mean using phantom games, so a 2-game outlier doesn't get treated like gospel.
Injury reports, lineup changes, and role shifts are classified in real time. Players ruled out are dropped instantly. Doubtful and questionable tags cut confidence before you ever see the pick.
Two legs on the same game share variance — naive multiplication of independent probabilities under-prices the parlay. We model the correlation explicitly, so the parlay hit % we show is the math that actually holds. Sportsbooks price these legs as if uncorrelated. That gap is edge.
Stats from blowouts are noise, not signal. The prop model downweights games with lopsided scores so bench-mob minutes don't contaminate your projection.
Every pick is graded against the real game result. The model re-weights itself as the W/L record grows — consistent winners gain influence, losing signals get throttled. You aren't looking at a static spreadsheet. You're looking at an engine that gets sharper every day it runs.
Ask our AI about any player — even ones not on today's board. Score custom props live through the same model that powers our picks. "Gunnar Henderson over 0.5 hits" → instant projection, edge %, and confidence. It's like having a quant analyst in your pocket.
Free shows you 4 heaters a day. Pro is everything behind them — the full board, the parlays, the math, the matchup data, and the tools that turn picks into a system.
Ask our model about any player or game — not just today's board. Score custom picks live: "Gunnar Henderson over 0.5 hits" returns instant projection, edge %, and confidence. Quant analyst in your pocket.
Real-time cross-book scanner across all 8 books. Surfaces the best price on every pick, flags cross-book arbitrage, and shows which book is hanging dead money. Your edge multiplied by line-shopping discipline.
We track every opening line. When sharps confirm our pick, we boost the confidence tag. When the line moves against us, confidence drops automatically. Your picks travel WITH the smart money, not against it.
Tail markets (HRs, multi-K games) break Normal approximations. We run 2,500-iteration simulations on every relevant prop and blend the result into our projection. Disagreement between analytic + sim shows on the card.
Every pick opens into a full breakdown — recency-weighted projection, Bayesian H2H sample, line movement since open, weather/park context, opposing pitcher quality. The math behind the math, not just "trust us."
Every graded pick searchable + filterable. Week-by-week rollups split by Player Props / Game Lines / Daily Parlays / Bomb Tank. Custom unit sizing. CSV export. Track your real P&L, not vibes.
3 correlation-aware parlays generated daily — Props, Game, and the Super-4. We model leg correlation explicitly so the payout math actually holds. Books price these as if uncorrelated; that gap is edge.
High-odds HR longshots every MLB night. Volume play — designed to lose more often than they hit, but at +400 to +1200 prices the EV math works when you stick with the process for a full season.
Real-time pick drops in private Pro Discord channels. Daily SMS digest if you opt in. Yesterday's results every morning. Picks come to you — no need to refresh the dashboard.
Free forever teaser. Pro pays for itself with one cashed +EV bet a month.
$0
$9.99/mo
or $99.99/yr (save 17%)